Gold Price Rises and Falls since 2011 Gold High

26th March - 2015


Just days after the highest price for gold to be experienced by investors, there was a downturn in the charts in September 2011. After about three decades, gold price plunged to a level that left the gold investors looking for other investment options. The main reasons that led to this fall, as investment analysts put it, was the federal rate hikes and the reduction in interest rates. Since that time, the price of gold has been dull. Let's trail the journey of the gold market price since its biggest fall in 2011.
After experiencing a high of $1920.74 a troy ounce in Sept. 2011, gold investors expected the upward trend to continue. But then later during 2011 after the price having gone down to $1600, many thought that the situation could only get better as we went into 2012. Then, when a Gallup Poll was conducted, about 34% of Americans responded that gold was the best choice for long-term investment in comparison to bonds, real estate and stocks. They were so optimistic and they failed to see the risks that lay ahead.
In 2013, the gold price fell to about $1400 per ounce. This made investors reconsider their thinking about gold being a store of value. If you are familiar with the metals history, what happened in the year 2013 was not different from what occurred in Jan 21 1980, all the way to April 3 1980. First, there was a high of $850 and after that the price dropped to $486. As the year ended, it shot up to $590 but again moved lower in the following year to $398 and the trend continued for about two decades. It is only in 2002 that gold prices started to improve upwards. In 2015, gold prices are yet to recover and hit the previous highs but investors like Jeffry Gundlach and Jeffrey Nichols say that there is more positives to come for gold investors. Gundlach said that the price will get to $1400 and higher in 2015 and beyond.
As you can see, the price of gold is pretty dynamic. It can be good today, only for you to wake up to the news of a significant drop tomorrow.

Reasons for Gold prices taking a plunge?

Most people invest in gold for two primary reasons. Firstly, when they are worried that inflation is diminishing their spending power and they are looking for an investment, which will have more value than cash. Secondly, if they realize that banks are levying lower interest rates, gold becomes the best option as compared to bonds and saving accounts. Such reasons have made people invest in gold during the global economic crisis in 2008, but with the recent market price drop, some may be reconsidering their position.
Recently, Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve said that as soon as the economy and labour market starts to improve, the Fed Reserve could stop the popular stimulus package that it injects monthly into the economy. If this action is finally taken by the Fed, the result will be low money supply in the market, which in turn will reduce inflation and eventually begin a slow rise in interest rates.
The plans of the Federal Reserve makes gold and other assets have a lower market demand. You see, when there is less money in the system, fewer people will be willing to invest it in gold and this eventually affects prices of the commodity in the entire world. According to Chitraj Channa, an economist from the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London, if the stimulus program is removed and the interest rates increased, there will no respite against the higher rates of inflation. This will translate to low demand for gold.
Other reasons that could have translated to the current drop in gold prices include countries that buy or hold gold. During the economic crisis, most people opted to boost their gold holdings, to ensure that they were not left with most of their resources in hard currency, which was deemed to lose value.
Back in 2013, central banks gold purchases represented 12% of gold demand globally, from a report given by the World Gold Council. However, as gold price continues to drop, buying gold is becoming a non-feasible business. Kazakhstan, Turkey and Azerbaijan also increased their gold holdings in March the same year. However, the gold price slumped to $1270 an ounce in the middle of 2013.
Today the dollar is stronger and the US economy is stronger and we can only hope that central banks will buy gold or opt to hold hard currency. Furthermore, the upward pressure that they have been placing on gold prices is gradually melting away.


Investing in Gold going forward into 2015

If you are planning to invest in gold, it is important to understand a few things before you delve into the business. You might have heard about momentum in investment markets. It simply refers to the tendency of the assets, which were fairing well in the market to continue doing so for a long while and the vice-versa is true. However, momentum is not an accurate indicator with gold. The gold market, as you have seen, is somehow unpredictable. Always stay alert!
Nobody saw the drop at the end of 2011 coming, neither the one in 1980. However, it is believed that in 1980, the decision of Paul Volckers, the then Federal Reserve Chairman led to the historical drop of the price of gold. Again, in 2003, the decision of Alan Greenspan, the then chairperson of Fed, revived the price of gold. However, what happened in 2011 cannot be attributed to the intervention of Federal Reserve. This should tell you that the gold market is difficult to forecast. You need to play your cards right!
Gold has its diverse benefits and it has capabilities of standing the waves of inflation and deflation. However, you must be ready to handle geopolitical events and loose monetary policy. If you can put up with the aforementioned factors that drive the gold market, you can invest some of your money in gold. All you need is to be calm enough so that you are not swayed by the noise and the rumours that revolve around the gold marketplace, and hold your position for the long term if need be. On the other hand, if you are a speculator, you should not ignore the precious metal markets as some indicators show that in 2015, it is believed that gold prices will turn more Bullish.

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